Fed Inflation Data Sends Markets on Relief Rally, But Rate Hike Odds Climb
August CPI dropped Friday morning and the tape did not love it. Headline inflation held at 3.4% year-over-year, core ticked up 0.3% month-on-month, and suddenly next week's Fed meeting looks less like a formality and more like a coin flip on whether they hike from the current 3.50–3.75% range. The 10-year Treasury yield kissed 5% before backing down to 4.92%, which is still high enough to make growth names sweat.
Markets bought the dip anyway. The S&P closed up 0.9% to 7,656.98, the Dow gained 1% to 52,573.29, and the Nasdaq climbed 1% to 26,333.04, snapping a four-session losing streak. VIX dropped as stocks climbed, so the vibe was relief more than conviction. Fed Governor Waller said he's inclined to hold if the data cooperate, but the data just didn't cooperate, so traders are pricing in at least one more hike before year-end and treating this bounce as tactical.
The mood all week: data-driven, headline-sensitive, cautiously constructive but nobody's writing victory laps until Powell speaks.
Bag Takes $1,314 Loss on 36 Trades as Win Rate Crashes to 35%
We got cooked. 36 trades closed, 12 winners, 22 losers, -$1,314 realized P&L. The win rate was 35%, which is the kind of number that makes you check if the app is broken.
The damage came from everywhere. manual-book went 0-for-3 and lost -$440. Moon Trades also went 0-for-4, down -$267. Prophitcy ran six trades at a 20% win rate and bled -$360. Edward Alerts moved six times, won 40%, still lost -$225. Even the groups that won more than they lost—IWM Fade hit 67% wins, Open Fade landed 60%—couldn't climb out of the hole fast enough. IWM Fade made +$38, Open Fade lost -$4, Circuit Breaker squeezed out +$4.
Best trade of the week: an AAPL $332.50 call from Edward Alerts that closed for +$64, up 43% on a ratchet floor. Worst trade: an SPCX $157.50 weekly call that expired worthless for -$193, a full wipeout. SPCX overall was a disaster—four trades, -$409 total. NVDA got hit twice by Prophitcy for -$360. XLE bled -$267 across Moon Trades' energy bets.
The only ticker that held it down was IWM, which saw 11 trades and printed +$34 total. QQQ moved five times for +$4. Everything else was red or burning.
Oil's 8% Weekly Surge Eases Friday, Giving Equities Room to Run
Crude pulled back Friday after ripping more than 8% for the week, and that one-day breather was enough to let stocks catch a bid. The week's overall energy spike keeps input-cost inflation front and center—higher oil means higher everything downstream, and the Fed's watching that print just like they're watching CPI.
The relief rally wouldn't have happened without oil cooling off for a session. Treasury yields were already doing their thing near 5%, and if crude had kept climbing the mood would've stayed heavy. Instead, equities got some breathing room and the indices all closed about 1% higher, snapping the four-day slide.
Still, the weekly move in oil is the story. An 8% gain in energy in one week is inflationary, and it's exactly the kind of thing that makes the Fed lean hawkish even when they'd rather pause. The market bought the dip Friday, but it's not forgetting what the week looked like overall.
AI 0DTE Agents Post Mixed Results While Alert Services Struggle
The robots had a weird week. IWM Fade ran six trades, hit a 67% win rate, and made +$38. That's the best performance by win rate and one of the only groups that actually printed green. Open Fade also won 60% of its five trades but still lost -$4 total, which tells you the losses were bigger than the wins. Circuit Breaker went 40% on five trades and squeaked out +$4.
Meanwhile, the alert services that spam notifications and sell lifetime memberships got destroyed. Prophitcy moved six times, won 20%, bled -$360, and spent the week posting screenshots like this:
$AAPL 🍏 $335 18 SEP 26 CALL 100 $1.68 ➡️ $5.70 🤑 239% GAINER! ☢️ TURN MY POST NOTIFICATIONS ON!
And this:
$CRUS 💻 $120 18 SEP 26 CALL 100 $1.35 ➡️ $2.75 🤑 103% GAINER! ☢️ TURN MY POST NOTIFICATIONS ON!
Cool screenshots. The group's actual realized P&L on the platform: -$360. Edward Alerts ran the same playbook—six trades, 40% wins, -$225 realized. When your best trade of the week is a 43% AAPL call gain and you're still down -$225, the math is not mathing.
The lesson: a high win rate doesn't guarantee profit if your losers are heavy, and posting 239% theoretical gains on one leg of a trade doesn't mean your followers are eating. The groups that actually closed green this week were the ones managing size and risk, not the ones spamming emojis.
FORM GUIDE
The numbers say we're in a rough patch, but there are a few groups worth watching if you're reading the tape.
IWM Fade logged six trades, 67% wins, and positive P&L. The win rate is real, and the group's the only one that consistently hit on small-cap fades this week. Hot hand.
Circuit Breaker and Open Fade both won more than they lost (40% and 60% respectively), but the returns were flat to slightly negative. They're staying disciplined, just not catching the big moves yet.
Edward Alerts and Prophitcy both ran six trades and both lost money despite the hype. Edward hit 40% wins, Prophitcy only 20%. The alert-service model is struggling when the tape's this choppy—too many small wins getting erased by one or two big misses.
Moon Trades went 0-for-4 this week. The energy bets on XLE didn't land, and the group's in a cold streak. manual-book also went 0-for-3 and lost -$440, which is brutal for such a small sample.
If you're following groups, the data says stick with the ones managing risk and winning more than half their trades. If a group's posting screenshots but bleeding capital, you're not in the group chat—you're the exit liquidity.
