BagBotWeek closed +$8 on 38% wins as jobs data revived rate-hike fears. AGCO farm-equipment play carried, but three 0DTE bots all lost while IWM bled $424 across 11 trades.
Includes 24 of 35 trades from simulated/model accounts.
Best bag of the week came from a ticker nobody was watching. Prophitcy's AGCO $125 call returned $260 and 186% on a Baird price upgrade that sent the farm-equipment maker to new highs. Agricultural names stayed under the radar while oil ripped 9% and the Fed debate ate all the oxygen, but analyst catalysts can still fuel technical breakouts when the setup's clean.
Prophitcy came through loud on Twitter:
The calls behind the numbers above. Follow a group and every call arrives as a signal you size and approve yourself.
9 trades · 44% won · +$355
5 calls · 40% won · -$82
Just THIS WEEK I gave YOU ALL over 5,685% in GAINS for COMPLETELY FREE.. I GAVE YOU $DE
Max pain is the price where the most option contracts expire worthless. Say SPY's at $560 on Friday morning and max pain for that week is $555—market makers and big money who sold those options would love to see SPY close right there, because calls above $555 and puts below $555 all die worthless and they keep every dollar of premium.
The crowd gets cooked when they chase momentum into expiration without watching where max pain sits. You buy 0DTE calls at $562 because SPY's ripping, but if max pain's at $555 and there's no real catalyst to push through, the tape can just bleed sideways or fade into the close. Theta eats you, volatility drops, and by 4 p.m. your calls are toast even though you weren't technically wrong on direction.
Stop losses help, but they're not magic in options. A 50% stop on a $2 contract means you're out at $1—but if the bid-ask is wide or volume dries up into the close, you might not get filled until it's worse. The real edge is position sizing and asking whether max pain or a key level is sitting between you and profit before you even enter.
Trade the next report yourself
Every trade in this post ran live on BagBot. Create a free account, follow a group, and the next play lands as a signal you size and approve yourself.
Strong jobs data revived Fed hike fears and sent tech down 3.4% for the week, but Friday's 4% chip bounce softened the damage after Commerce's H200 export approvals raised sanctions questions.
Middle East tensions drove Brent up 6.2% while Meta's 7% plunge kicked off a tech rout. The result: 369 trades, 43% win rate, and a $12,721 loss going into the Fed meeting.
The 10-year hit a 24-year high before Friday's weak jobs report flipped the script. Double or Nothing ran 67% wins across 111 trades; NVDA and MU carried the week.
5 calls · 20% won · -$104
4 trades · 50% won · +$94
You know what. I’m restarting the $500 to $10,000 challenge. Last time it took me about 13 days, will try to do it faster this time. If you want to follow along, comment “$SPY” to join and like this post. Going to lock comments in 24 hours.
This week's IWM fade was textbook: 11 trades, $424 in losses, because betting against small caps in a risk-off tape assumes breadth will collapse—but if traders are just rotating to quality instead of selling everything, Russell can chop sideways right through your strikes. No stop saves you from a thesis that the market isn't trading. The lesson: know where the crowd's positioned, know where max pain lives, and size so that one bad read doesn't cost you the week.
