Fed Hikes, Portfolio Bleeds: 20% Win Rate and Lessons From a $1,931 Week — BagBot
Weekly Recap
Fed Hikes, Portfolio Bleeds: 20% Win Rate and Lessons From a $1,931 Week
The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, yields hit 16-year highs, and our groups got absolutely cooked. Only 14 wins out of 70 trades — here's the honest autopsy.
TL;DR
Fed hiked 25bps for the first time since 2023, pushing the 10-year yield to a 16-year high while the Dow dropped 733 points on the week
Platform went 14-56 across 70 trades for a brutal 20% win rate and $1,931 loss, with Moon Trades, Prophitcy, and manual-book all posting heavy damage
AI 0DTE agents (IWM Fade, Open Fade, Circuit Breaker) lost small but held 29–57% win rates, massively outperforming discretionary groups that went 0–15%
IBM carried with $488 total P&L and the week's best trade at 108% gain, while AVBC, LNN, and HHH bled hundreds in illiquid misses
Realized P&L
-$1,931
Trades
70
Win rate
20%
Record
14W · 56L
Best trade
IBM $250C · Moon Trades
+$218(+108%)
Roughest trade
AAPL $340C · manual-book
-$184(-100%)
Includes 46 of 70 trades from simulated/model accounts.
Fed Hikes for First Time Since 2023, Yields Hit 16-Year High
The Federal Reserve raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% this week and made it clear more hikes are coming. The 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007. Markets didn't panic but they definitely felt it — the S&P 500 climbed about 0.7%, the Nasdaq ran up roughly 2.6% on tech strength, but the Dow ate a 733-point loss as financial conditions tightened. Add in crude staying above $100 and the US–Israeli war on Iran, and you had a week where growth names held up while everything rate-sensitive got smoked.
The tape was telling you to pay for growth or step aside. Our groups did not step aside.
Brutal Week: 20% Win Rate, Down $1,931 Across 70 Trades
Let's just say it: we got cooked. 70 trades closed, only 14 winners, 20% win rate, down $1,931 realized. Moon Trades ran 26 trades and lost $314 with a 15% win rate. Prophitcy went 0% on seven trades and dropped $522. The manual-book also ran 0% and bled $662. Even the week's best trade — an IBM call that printed $218 and doubled at 108% — couldn't save the damage.
Groups in this report
The calls behind the numbers above. Follow a group and every call arrives as a signal you size and approve yourself.
Just today in under 5 hours I gave YOU ALL over 300% in gains…
I GAVE YOU $IMOS
THE BREAKDOWN
Taking Profits
Example Numbers
Taking Profits: Why the Bot Exits at 50% — and Why You Should Too
This week's best trade — that IBM call — doubled at 108% and closed because it hit the auto-half-sell at 50%. A lot of people see a winner running and think "why not hold for more?" Here's why 50% is the move.
Options decay fast. Say you buy a call for $100. It runs to $150 — you're up 50%. If you sell, you lock $50 profit. If you hold hoping it hits $200 (a double), you're now betting that same option keeps running in a narrower window before theta (time decay) and any pullback in the underlying eats your gain. The risk-reward flips: you're risking $50 of profit to maybe make another $50, and most of the time the option fades before it doubles.
The 50% rule works because it banks real money while the trade still has juice. You're not trying to call the top — you're taking the win the market's offering. This week that discipline saved the IBM trade from becoming another expired loser. When only 20% of your trades are winning, you can't afford to give profit back.
Trade the next report yourself
Every trade in this post ran live on BagBot. Create a free account, follow a group, and the next play lands as a signal you size and approve yourself.
Moon Trades was especially loud about wins that didn't show up in the closed book. @@MoonTrades7 posted "Just today in under 5 hours I gave YOU ALL over 300% in gains… I GAVE YOU $IMOS 60 CALL FOR 200%🥰 I GAVE YOU $BMI 135 CALL FOR 100%🥰 I'm up at 4am everyday prepping for each trading day, and posting." Another tweet said "OMG IM SHAKING" about the same IMOS call. Cool, but our realized P&L says Moon Trades closed the week down $314 on 26 attempts. If those winners closed, they got more than offset by the misses.
The math is honest: when 56 out of 70 trades lose, it doesn't matter how loud the group chat is.
AI Agents Edge Out Human Alerts in Damage Control
Here's the one bright spot in a dark week: the three AI 0DTE agents — IWM Fade, Open Fade, and Circuit Breaker — ran 19 trades total and lost a combined total that was a fraction of what the discretionary groups dropped. IWM Fade went seven trades at 57% win rate and lost $10. Open Fade ran seven at 29% and lost $51. Circuit Breaker did five at 40% and lost $4. Not profitable, but not a massacre either.
When human alerts are posting 0% win rates and the bots are holding above 29%, the bots are reading the tape better. They're not trying to force plays into a Fed-hike, high-yield, headline-driven chop fest. They took their shots, cut fast, and lived to trade Monday.
That's the lesson: in a week this ugly, surviving is winning.
IBM Shines, Apple and Obscure Names Crater
IBM was the week's hero — four trades, $488 total P&L, and that $218 winner at 108% that hit the auto-half-sell and banked the double. It was the only ticker that actually worked. Meanwhile, an expired AAPL $340 call wiped $184 on a full loss. And Moon Trades kept swinging at illiquid small-caps like AVBC (lost $314 across six trades), LNN (lost $325 on seven trades), and HHH (lost $290 on seven trades). Those three tickers alone cost more than the entire portfolio's weekly loss.
@@Prophitcy was also in full hype mode: "THIS WILL BE YOUR LAST AND FINAL CHANCE TO JOIN AT THIS PRICE 💎 THIS SECURES YOUR SPOT IN MY PRIVATE TRADING GROUP WHERE I LIVE TRADE AND POST ALL MY TRADES WITH ENTRY AND EXIT ☢️ HIGHLIGHT TRADES OF." That group closed the week at 0% win rate and down $522.
When the Fed's hiking and your book's on fire, even a 108% winner feels like a participation trophy. The week taught us that liquidity and risk management matter more than hype, and that one monster winner can't paper over fifty-six losses.
FORM GUIDE
Reading the numbers like a racing card — who's hot, who's cold, who looks most likely to hit next based purely on past form.
IWM Fade — AI 0DTE Agent ran seven trades at 57% win rate. Lost $10 total but that win rate is the highest in the stable. The bot's finding more edges than the humans right now.
Circuit Breaker — AI/Tech 0DTE Agent posted 40% win rate on five trades, down $4. Second-best win rate this week. The AI agents are holding up.
Edward Alerts — Options managed 33% on six trades, lost $223. Not great but better than most of the discretionary roster.
Open Fade — AI 0DTE Agent hit 29% on seven trades, down $51. Still ahead of the human competition.
Moon Trades ran 26 trades — the most active group — at 15% win rate and $314 down. Volume doesn't save you when the hit rate's that low.
Prophitcy and manual-book both posted 0% win rates. Prophitcy lost $522 on seven swings, manual-book dropped $662 on nine. Cold doesn't even cover it — these groups are in shambles. The tape's saying step back until the form turns.
135 CALL FOR 100%🥰
I’m up at 4am everyday prepping for each trading day, and posting my thoughts on X for you guys for completely free
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