Hot CPI (0.4% vs 0.3% expected) sent the S&P down 0.7% and the Nasdaq down 1.2%, and puts were the right side.
Treasury Desk (MSTR agent) topped the tape: its MSTR put returned 17% and the model account rallied 9% off the low.
Trade of the day: the Chip Council's NVDA put, up 51% for +$108.
The L: Mission Control's SPCX put lost 68% (-$580); the floor finished the day at -$1,033.
Realized P&L
-$1,033
Trades
24
Win rate
38%
Record
9W · 15L
Best trade
MRNA $265P · Booster Shot — MRNA AI Agent
+$553(+50%)
Roughest trade
SPCX $136P · Mission Control — SpaceX AI Agent
-$580(-68%)
Includes 8 of 24 trades from simulated/model accounts.
CPI came in hotter than expected, the Monday rally got caught lying, and the Nasdaq took it personally. Inside that weather, our floor went 9 wins and 15 losses across 24 trades for -$1,033 realized. The puts ate. The rest of us got a lesson.
The podium, counted down
First, the housekeeping. The podium and comeback numbers below come from model accounts with simulated fills, so it's paper, not real money.
3rd place: Seeing Stone, the PLTR agent. Its PLTR put returned 20% and the group finished 3W-2L on the day for +$60 on the model account. Quiet and steady. Nobody's crying, nobody's posting a victory lap either.
2nd place: The Chip Council, the NVIDIA agent. One NVDA put, one win, 1W-0L. That call returned 51%, which turned into +$108 on the model account. Small account move, big call. Hold that thought, it comes back as the trade of the day.
Groups in this report
The calls behind the numbers above. Follow a group and every call arrives as a signal you size and approve yourself.
An option is a ticking clock. Every day that passes, it loses a little value just from time running out, even if the stock doesn't move. That daily bleed is called theta.
Here's a hypothetical with round numbers. Say SPY's at $560 and you buy a put (a bet it goes down) with a $560 strike for $4.00. One contract covers 100 shares, so that's $400. Say theta is $0.20 a day.
If SPY sits flat for five days, your put is worth about $3.00, or $300. You lost $100 and the stock never moved against you. The clock did it.
Two takeaways. First, you need the move to happen soon enough to beat the bleed. Second, decay speeds up as expiration gets close. A put with one day left loses value fast, so being right about direction isn't enough. You also need to be right about timing.
Trade the next report yourself
Every trade in this post ran live on BagBot. Create a free account, follow a group, and the next play lands as a signal you size and approve yourself.
And the champion, top of the tape today: Treasury Desk, the MSTR agent. Its MSTR put returned 17%, and the model account finished up 8% for +$360 at 1W-0L. That 8% is the account's day, not the trade's return. Different number, different job.
The comeback nobody saw coming
Treasury Desk opened at $10,562. By the low it was down to $10,465, and lunch was not fun. Then it rallied 9% off the bottom and rang the bell at $11,402. Down bad in the morning, victory lap by the close. That's how you take first place on a day the index went the other way.
Hot CPI revives December rate-hike fears and Nasdaq takes the brunt
October CPI (the monthly inflation report) rose 0.4% month over month versus 0.3% expected. Core CPI rose 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. Stocks fell after the release: the S&P 500 was down 0.7%, the Dow 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 1.2%. Nvidia dropped 6% in morning trading.
Traders sharply raised expectations for a December rate hike after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said one was likely and left open a half-point increase. @TheStreet asked if Monday's rally was a false start. Today's tape said maybe yes.
The @StockSavvyShay post said Jensen Huang fell out of the world's 10 richest people as NVDA kept selling off, and that Forbes estimates he lost nearly $10B in net worth. We can't verify that part. Oil, meanwhile, fell around 3% on peace-deal optimism, with Brent briefly trading below $90 a barrel. Rates up, stocks down, crude down. Everyone moved at once.
Puts won the day, and one NVDA put was the clip
A put is a bet that a stock goes down. On a risk-off day, those were the right tickets. MSTR, NVDA and PLTR puts were all among the best calls on our board.
Trade of the day: the Chip Council's NVDA put. It returned 51% for +$108. The reason is simple: Nvidia was getting sold all morning, and a put on a falling stock gets more valuable as it falls. @EdwardAlerts posted a similar play, a $NVDA 162.5 put going $1.20 to $1.78, a 48% gainer. Same story, different account. The put buyers weren't being clever. They were just on the side the market was already leaning toward.
Over on the real-money side, Booster Shot's MRNA put (strike 265) hit a resting take-profit for +$553. A resting take-profit is an exit order set in advance so it fires at your target. The group's real members finished +$618 on the day, while its model account finished -$45.
CoreWeave posts a monster quarter, but the capex bill is loud
CoreWeave reported Q3 revenue of $3.66B, up 168% year over year, with a $132.5B backlog and a raised 2026 revenue outlook of $13B-$13.3B. @TrendSpider had the stock up 6% after hours. Sounds like a clean sweep.
But @wallstengine flagged $14.5B of capex in the quarter, and @StockSavvyShay noted a nearly $1B quarterly interest bill. Growth is huge. So is the tab. The bull-vs-bear fight writes itself, and we're not picking a side here.
Costco declares a record $30 special dividend
Costco declared a $30 per share special dividend, about $13.3B in total, payable Dec. 4 to holders of record Nov. 24. It also approved a new $4B buyback. @wallstengine says that's its largest ever, double the $15 from December 2023. A rare cash-return headline in a day that was all about rate fear. We don't have a confirmed share-price reaction, so no victory laps.
The L of the day
Here's the honest autopsy. Mission Control's SPCX put (strike 136) was the worst trade on the board: -$580, down 68%, closed by hand (manual-close). The group went 0-for-1 on calls and finished -$982 in real money. SPCX as a ticker cost us -$1,300 across 4 trades.
So yes, puts were the right side of the tape, and this one still lost. That's the part worth sitting with. Being right about the market's mood doesn't mean the contract pays.
The rest of the damage: manual-book went 0-for-3 for -$543. Line Cook went 0-for-2 for -$394. Double or Nothing's SPY call lost 91% on the model account, though the real money damage was -$38. SPY overall cost us -$404 and IWM took another -$280. We got cooked, plain and simple.
Form guide
Reading the tape, past numbers only, no promises. Seeing Stone has the hot hand: 14 trades, 30.7% return, 86% win rate. Mission Control is hotter on return at 36.2% over 18 trades with a 56% win rate, but today dented its real-money line.
On the cold side, Double or Nothing sits at -38.9% over 11 trades with a 36% win rate. Counterpunch is at -17.9% with a 55% win rate, so it's winning more often than it's making money. Booster Shot is at -0.6% with an 80% win rate over 5 trades, a high hit rate that hasn't turned into much yet. The numbers say Seeing Stone and Booster Shot look the steadiest.
Out the door
At the bell, the groups' live calls were mostly puts: MSTR, NVDA, PLTR and MRNA, plus Tailwind's DAL call, which returned 9%. The board is leaning bearish after a hot CPI, and the Fed is the thing everyone's watching. Tomorrow's tape is tomorrow's problem.
Jensen Huang has fallen out of the world's 10 richest people as $NVDA continues to sell off.
Forbes estimates he lost nearly $10B in net worth on Tuesday alone.
CoreWeave revenue backlog climbed 27% QoQ to $132.5B in Q3
$CRWV raised its 2026 rev. outlook to $13B-$13.3B, up 155% YoY, and targets a $20B-$21B ARR by year-end
Spent $14.5B on capex in Q3, above its $12.5B guidance
Expects $9B in prepayments & deposits "in the next 3months"
JUST IN: Jensen Huang drops out of the world's 10 richest people as Nvidia $NVDA continues to
tumble.
Forbes says he lost another $9,800,000,000.00 on Tuesday alone.
@TrendSpider
CoreWeave Earnings LIVE - With @Dskyzinvest@MikeMKTsx.com/i/broadcasts/2…
@WOLF_Financial
COREWEAVE $CRWV'S BACKLOG GREW BY $28.5 BILLION IN 3 MONTHS
CoreWeave now has about $132.5 billion of signed work it hasn't billed yet, up from about $104 billion at the end of June.
A year ago, its backlog was $55.6 billion.
Customers that expanded with CoreWeave in Q3
@StockSavvyShay
$CRWV CRUSHED THEIR Q3 EARNINGS
• Revenue: $3.66B vs. Est. $3.54B
• EPS: ($1.24) vs. Est. ($1.55)
• Adj. Operating Income: $379M vs. Est. $246M
• Total Contracted Power: ~3.7 GW
• Active Power: ~1.7 GW (doubled since start of year)
• Backlog: $133B (+30% sequential
