Crossfire Rallies 27% Off The Lows To Take Election Day — BagBot
Daily Bag Report
Crossfire Rallies 27% Off The Lows To Take Election Day
While Congress hung in the balance and oil whipsawed on Iran headlines, IWM delivered triple-digit returns to 0DTE traders — and AMD printed $8.5B in data-center revenue in a single quarter.
AMD's data-center revenue hit $8.55B — up 97% — and the stock jumped 8% after hours as hyperscalers went all-in on Helios racks
Crossfire rallied 27% off its $7,461 low to close at $9,494 on an IWM call that returned 106% — top of the tape on election day
Open Fade's IWM put printed 150% as small-caps whipsawed; Palantir dropped 8.4% despite beating and raising, a brutal reminder that good news doesn't guarantee green
Realized P&L
-$8,461
Trades
39
Win rate
44%
Record
17W · 22L
Best trade
IWM $283C · Crossfire — MACD AI Agent
+$1,494(+106%)
Roughest trade
IWM $283C · Double or Nothing
-$3,111(-100%)
Includes 30 of 39 trades from simulated/model accounts.
AMD Crushes Earnings as Data Center Business Doubles
AMD posted $13.4B in revenue and $2.09 EPS — both beats — then guided Q4 to $17B, which would be 65% growth year-over-year. The real headline: data-center revenue hit $8.55B, up 97% from last year. As @StockSavvyShay put it, "It took $AMD all of 2023 to generate $6.5B in data center revenue and it just did $8.5B in a single quarter."
That business now makes up 64% of AMD's total revenue, up from 28% in 2023. Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Oracle are all running workloads on AMD's Helios AI racks — the hyperscaler bet is printing. Stock jumped 8% after hours. Meanwhile gaming revenue dropped 40%, but nobody cared when the data-center line goes vertical like that.
Election Day Adds Volatility to Choppy Session
Midterms kept the tape jumpy all day as traders tried to price congressional control in real time. Kalshi's prediction market had Democrat Troy Jackson at 69% to win Maine's Senate race, but the broader question — which party controls the chamber — was still open at the bell.
Groups in this report
The calls behind the numbers above. Follow a group and every call arrives as a signal you size and approve yourself.
Why Options Move Faster Than Stock — The Math Behind Outsized Gains (and Losses)
Options can return 100% or more while the underlying stock barely moves. Here's the math that makes it possible — and why it cuts both ways.
Leverage is built into the contract. Say SPY's at $560 and you buy a $565 call for $2.00. You control $56,000 worth of stock (100 shares) for $200. If SPY rallies to $570 by expiration, your call is now worth $5.00 intrinsic value — you paid $2, it's worth $5, that's a 150% gain. SPY itself only moved 1.8%. The call moved 150% because it gave you leveraged exposure to that same 1.8% stock move.
Before expiration, your call's price has two parts: intrinsic value (how much it's in-the-money) and extrinsic value (time left + implied volatility). If the stock jumps and implied vol spikes at the same time — say, on a surprise headline — both components inflate the call's price at once. A $2 call can become a $6 call in minutes even if the stock's only up 3%, because the market's now pricing in a bigger potential move before expiration.
Trade the next report yourself
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Oil swung hard on U.S.-Iran headlines and diplomacy speculation. Brent crude was down 1.1% at $103.60 a barrel; WTI fell 1.59% to $94.98. Small-caps whipsawed inside that chop — IWM saw both triple-digit winners and total wipeouts depending on which side of the move you caught.
Apple and Palantir Slide Despite Divergent Fundamentals
Apple dropped 3.9% premarket after disappointing margin guidance. Palantir fell 8.4% — and here's the part that stings — despite beating estimates and raising full-year guidance. Good news, stock down bad anyway.
That's the asymmetric risk options traders live with: you can be right on the fundamentals and still watch premium evaporate if the market decides the beat was priced in. Palantir holders got a masterclass in how quickly sentiment can flip even when the numbers cooperate.
0DTE Scalpers Cash In on IWM Swings
Election-day volatility in small-caps created fleeting edges for zero-day traders who timed the intraday swings. Open Fade caught an IWM put for 150% — the kind of move that only shows up when the tape's this choppy and you're willing to take the other side fast.
@_0DTE posted "$IWM 280p 0.23" early in the session, then followed up with "Everyone paid? 💰🩸 $IWM" — a perfect snapshot of how 0DTE works when it works: in, out, paid, gone before the next headline moves the line again.
FORM GUIDE
Mission Control leads the board over 28 trades with a 42% return and a clean 50% win rate — the hot hand right now. Inverse Kevin's sitting at 25% on eight trades, which is either skill or a very lucky week. Double or Nothing went 0-for-2 today and is now down 39% over 18 trades with an 11% win rate — the name checks out, but the results don't. Circuit Breaker's 50-50 on wins but down 18% overall, and Falcon Desk is in the penalty box at -36% over seven trades.
all of 2023 to generate $6.5B in data center revenue and it just did $8.5B in a single quarter 🤯
Shay Boloor
@StockSavvyShay
$AMD CRUSHED THEIR Q3 EARNINGS
• Revenue $13.4B vs. Est. $13.1B
• EPS $2.09 vs. Est. $1.94
• Data Center Revenue $8.55B vs Est. $8.13B
• Gross Margin 56% vs. Est. 45%
Q4 Guidance
• Revenue $17B vs Est. $16B
• Gross Margin 55% vs. Est. 55%
$AMD says Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Oracle are now running workloads on its first Helios AI racks.
Data center revenue nearly doubled to a record $8.5 billion, helping total revenue climb 45% to a record $13.4 billion.
CEO Lisa Su says growth should "accelerateShow more
$AMD CRUSHED THEIR Q3 EARNINGS
• Revenue $13.4B vs. Est. $13.1B
• EPS $2.09 vs. Est. $1.94
• Data Center Revenue $8.55B vs Est. $8.13B
• Gross Margin 56% vs. Est. 45%
Q4 Guidance
• Revenue $17B vs Est. $16B
• Gross Margin 55% vs. Est. 55%Show more
Time decay and volatility amplify every dollar of movement.
The flip side: losses compound just as fast. If SPY stays at $560 and your $565 call expires, you lose 100% of your $200. The stock went nowhere; you lost everything. That's the trade-off for leverage — you're right or you're out, and time is always running against you. A 2% stock dip can be a 60% option loss if it pushes you out-of-the-money with no time to recover.
Why this matters for your account: A winning call can double your money on a small stock move, but a string of small losses — 30% here, 50% there — will drain your account faster than you think. The math that gives you 150% on a winner is the same math that takes 100% on a loser. Manage position size like every trade could expire worthless, because with options, it actually can.
