Fed Hikes, Trump Fires Back, and IWM Fade Goes Perfect on a Wild Wednesday — BagBot
Daily Bag Report
Fed Hikes, Trump Fires Back, and IWM Fade Goes Perfect on a Wild Wednesday
The FOMC raised rates for the first time since 2023, the White House called it political, and markets rallied anyway. One AI agent went 2-for-2 fading small caps while Moon Trades ate $60 in losses.
Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, White House called it political, markets rallied anyway—S&P up 1.2%, Nasdaq up 1.6%, VIX down 11%.
IWM Fade AI agent went 2-for-2 with a 117% put win, leading the daily board at +15% on $55 model P&L; Open Fade rallied 20% off the low to close flat.
AAPL swing calls printed 40%+ gains for Prophitcy and Edward Alerts as Apple joined the tech-led bounce off yesterday's Fed lows.
Moon Trades went 0-for-2, losing $60 on AVBC trades and dropping to a 15% win rate over 13 trades—coldest on the board.
Realized P&L
-$63
Trades
6
Win rate
33%
Record
2W · 4L
Best trade
IWM $284P · IWM Fade — AI 0DTE Agent
+$35(+117%)
Roughest trade
IWM $282P · Open Fade — AI 0DTE Agent
-$30(-100%)
Includes 5 of 6 trades from simulated/model accounts.
Fed Hikes 25 bps, White House Fires Back—Relief Rally Ensues
The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, pushing the policy rate to a 3.75–4.00% target range and saying inflation has been "too high for too long." The White House immediately clapped back, calling the move "rather unfortunate" and blaming politics instead of inflation. One unanimous Fed hike, one very un-unanimous White House.
Markets sold off yesterday—Dow down 1%, S&P down 0.5%—but today came back swinging. S&P up 1.2%, Nasdaq up 1.6%, VIX down 11%. Lower Treasury yields and softer oil prices helped traders claw back losses. The tape read cautious but risk-on, a relief rally after the shock wore off.
The labor market is still holding: initial unemployment claims fell to 196,000 from 206,000, so recession panic isn't the vibe. But the Fed's hawkish tone means the tightening cycle just got real again, and the groups were trading that volatility all day.
IWM Fade AI Agent Goes 2-for-2, Leads Daily Board at +15%
Third place: Circuit Breaker — AI/Tech 0DTE Agent, down 9.24% on a $28 model-account loss, 0W-1L. The tech fade didn't land as QQQ bounced with the Nasdaq.
Groups in this report
The calls behind the numbers above. Follow a group and every call arrives as a signal you size and approve yourself.
In, At, Out of the Money — Where Your Contract Sits
Every option has a strike price—the level where the contract lets you buy (call) or sell (put) the stock. Where that strike sits relative to the stock's current price tells you if the contract is in the money (ITM), at the money (ATM), or out of the money (OTM)—and that changes everything about payoff.
means the contract already has —it would be worth something if you exercised it right now. For a call, that's when the stock is above the strike. For a put, it's when the stock is below the strike. Say SPY's at $560 and you own a $550 call—that's $10 in the money, because you could theoretically buy SPY at $550 and sell it at $560. ITM contracts cost more upfront because they have real value baked in, and they move closer to 1-for-1 with the stock (high , the rate the option price changes per $1 move in the stock). Lower risk, lower leverage.
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Second place: Open Fade — AI 0DTE Agent, flat at 0.00% day return but still took a $30 model loss, 0W-1L. The group opened at $126, bottomed at $105, and clawed all the way back to $126 by the bell—a 20% rally off the low that saved the day-return number but couldn't flip the trade green.
And top of the tape: IWM Fade — AI 0DTE Agent, up 15.07% on $55 in model P&L, a perfect 2W-0L day. The agent faded Russell 2000 strength post-Fed and hit on both swings, including a 117% put on the $284 strike. Clean read, clean execution, clean sweep. (All figures ran on $1,000 model accounts with simulated fills.)
Bag Members Hit 40%+ on AAPL Swing Calls as Tech Bounces
Apple joined the Nasdaq's 1.5% surge off yesterday's Fed lows, and multiple traders were already loaded. Prophitcy and Edward Alerts both called AAPL $342.5 calls ahead of the move—targeting a gap fill and all-time-high breakout—and cashed 15–46% returns as tech led today's relief rally.
Prophitcy hit a 46% gain on the same $342.5 strike, entering at $1.50 on a triple inside bar setup with a $339.79 pivot breakout in play. Edward Alerts posted 40%+ on the same call, entering at $1.55. Both swings caught the bounce at the exact moment the tape flipped risk-on. The gap-fill thesis printed, and Apple ate.
Moon Trades Loses $60 on the Day, Drops to -3% Return
Moon Trades went 0-for-2 today, taking losses on two AVBC trades and posting a -3.06% day return on the model account. The group now sits at a 15% win rate over 13 trades in the recent stretch, landing at the bottom of today's leaderboard with a $30 model loss.
The recent calls—including an FET 85 call at $0.55—haven't connected, and the numbers show it. Moon Trades has been one of the most active groups on the platform, but the tape hasn't cooperated. No spin—just the honest autopsy.
FORM GUIDE
Reading the tape like a racing card: IWM Fade is the hot hand right now—7 trades, 57% win rate, and today's podium finish. The fade strategy is working in this post-Fed chop, and the numbers back it up. Circuit Breaker sits at 40% wins over 5 trades, decent but not dominant. Edward Alerts is 50-50 over 4 trades, coin-flip territory. Open Fade is ice cold—17% win rate over 6 trades—and Moon Trades is struggling at 15% over 13, the coldest stretch on the board. The numbers say IWM Fade looks most likely to connect next, but past performance is just that—past.
At the bell, groups were leaning into tech calls and fade setups, riding the relief rally but staying nimble in case the Fed's hawkish tone comes back to bite.
At the money is when the strike is right at (or very close to) the stock price. Say SPY's at $560 and you own a $560 call—that's ATM. These contracts have no intrinsic value yet, but they have maximum extrinsic value (time value and volatility premium), and they're the most sensitive to big stock moves in either direction. Moderate cost, moderate delta, high gamma (the rate delta itself changes—meaning they can rip fast if the stock moves your way).
Out of the money means the contract has zero intrinsic value—it wouldn't be worth anything if you exercised it today. For a call, the stock is below the strike; for a put, the stock is above the strike. Say SPY's at $560 and you own a $570 call—that's $10 out of the money. OTM contracts are cheap because they're pure hope: the stock has to move past the strike before expiration or they expire worthless. Low cost, low delta, high potential return if the stock rips—but most expire at zero. High risk, high leverage.
The closer expiration gets, the faster OTM contracts lose value (theta decay, the rate options lose value as time passes). ITM contracts hold value better but cost more to enter. ATM contracts are the Goldilocks zone for most 0DTE plays—not too safe, not too risky, just enough leverage to print if you read the tape right. Know where your strike sits, and you know what you're actually betting on.
