Double or Nothing went 14-for-14, up +87% on simulated fills as hot CPI sent the 2-year yield to 4.90% and flipped rate-cut odds.
Best trade: SPY 772 put, +669% in hours on a runner-trailing-stop as tech sold off hardest (Nasdaq -1.9%).
Mission Control went 0-for-8 on SPCX calls, losing -93% on one time-stopped position as Rocket Lab news and macro wind killed the thesis.
Realized P&L
+$3,043
Trades
55
Win rate
76%
Record
42W · 13L
Best trade
SPY $772P · Double or Nothing
+$1,068(+534%)
Roughest trade
SPCX $157.5C · Mission Control — SpaceX AI Agent
-$594(-93%)
Includes 34 of 55 trades from simulated/model accounts.
Markets woke up to a 0.6% headline-CPI print and spent the rest of the day pricing in a completely different Fed. The 2-year yield spiked 13 basis points to 4.90%, the 10-year hit 5.31%, and suddenly the implied odds of a hike this month — not a cut — shot up. Tech ate it worst: the Nasdaq down 1.9% by afternoon, the S&P at -1.2%, the Dow barely red at -0.2%. One group read the room early, bought puts, and didn't miss once.
Double or Nothing swept every trade as inflation sparked protective put flow
Double or Nothing went 14-for-14 on Wednesday, banking +87% on $1,000 simulated fills and +$1,777 in real money as hot CPI data sent traders scrambling for downside insurance on SPY and IWM. The group opened at $1,419 on the model account, bottomed at $1,288 mid-session when the first couple puts were still cooking, then rang the bell at $2,653 — a 106% rally off the low. Best trade: a SPY 772 put that printed +669% (+$843) in a few hours, caught on a runner-trailing-stop. The group went 2-for-2 on calls (both puts, technically — options that pay when the stock drops).
The tape was obvious if you were watching yields. Core CPI at 0.3% versus the 0.2% estimate was enough to flip the entire rate narrative, and Double or Nothing leaned into it early and didn't blink.
Groups in this report
The calls behind the numbers above. Follow a group and every call arrives as a signal you size and approve yourself.
A call is a contract that gives you the right — not the obligation — to buy a stock at a specific price (the "strike") before a specific date (expiration). You pay a small premium up front, and if the stock goes up past your strike, the call gets more valuable. If it doesn't, you lose what you paid.
How to read one: Say SPY's at $560. You buy a $565 call expiring Friday for $2 per share. Options trade in 100-share contracts, so that's $200 total. If SPY rips to $575 by Thursday, your call is now worth at least $10 per share ($1,000) because you have the right to buy at $565 what's trading at $575. You just made $800 on a $200 bet. If SPY stays under $565, the call expires worthless and you lose the $200.
strike + expiration + premium. stock goes up more than you paid, you print; stock doesn't, you lose the premium. That's it. Calls pay when the stock goes up. The opposite — a contract that pays when the stock goes — is called a put, and we'll cover that next time.
Trade the next report yourself
Every trade in this post ran live on BagBot. Create a free account, follow a group, and the next play lands as a signal you size and approve yourself.
Yields climbed 13 bps after CPI miss, flipping rate-cut odds
September core CPI printed 0.3% versus 0.2% expected, and the bond market moved faster than equity algos could keep up. The 2-year Treasury yield climbed about 13 basis points to 4.90%, the 10-year reached 5.31%, and the implied chance of a Fed hike this month rose sharply — reversing weeks of cut speculation that had been the consensus trade since late summer.
Oil was up modestly to $95.66 a barrel, +1.55%. Bitcoin slipped half a percent to $83,315, barely a flicker compared to what equities were doing. The real story was in the front end of the curve — the 2-year doesn't move 13 bps on a quiet day.
Tech sold off hardest as higher rates pressured AI and chip names
The Nasdaq fell 1.9% in afternoon trading — nearly double the S&P's 1.2% decline — while the Dow held at -0.2%, propped up by financials that actually like higher rates. AI and chip stocks took it on the chin as higher yields made long-duration growth names less attractive. Banks were in focus as earnings arrived from BlackRock and Bank of America, but the broader market was too busy repricing Fed policy to care much about balance sheets.
Risk-off across the board. When the 10-year's at 5.31% and climbing, nobody's trying to be a hero in tech calls.
Mission Control hit an 8-trade cold streak, losing on every SPCX call
Mission Control — SpaceX AI Agent posted -$468 realized and 0% win rate on the day, going 0-for-1 on calls and watching every SPCX bet go red. The worst: a 157.5-strike call that hit a time-stop at -93%, costing -$594. Even the simulated account couldn't save the session, finishing -$756. The group's been hot over the last month — 110% returns, 38% win rate on 22 trades in the form guide — but Wednesday was not the day to bet on space stocks while the rest of the market was buying insurance.
Rocket Lab didn't help: the stock tanked after the company pushed its Neutron launch to 2027, and SPCX caught the same downdraft. Sometimes the headline writes the trade before you can.
THE TRADE OF THE DAY
Double or Nothing's SPY 772 put: in early, out at +669% (+$843) on a runner-trailing-stop. The setup was perfect — CPI at 9:30, yields ripping higher by 9:35, SPY rolling over as tech sold off. The group caught the move, let the runner work, and banked it before lunch. Clean read, clean exit.
The L of the day
Mission Control's SPCX 157.5 call, time-stopped at -93% for -$594. Betting on a space-stock rally the same morning inflation data flips the Fed's entire narrative is… optimistic. The headline about Rocket Lab pushing Neutron to 2027 didn't help, but the real issue was the macro wind in the face. No amount of conviction saves a directional call when the whole sector's getting repriced.
Lesson: when the 2-year moves 13 bps in an hour, your thesis better account for that or you're trading in a different market than the one that just opened.
What the groups were leaning into at the bell
Double or Nothing stayed in puts through the close, still holding a few IWM runners in case the selloff had another leg. Line Cook and Circuit Breaker both closed flat after banking small wins on 0DTE scalps — nobody wanted to hold overnight with this much rate volatility in the air. Treasury Desk and Token Factory both hit and quit on single-trade days, +51% and +56% respectively on simulated fills, then sat on their hands. Smart. When you're up that much by lunch and the tape's this messy, there's no reason to give it back.
